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UK construction set to fall 4.4% in 2012

Output for the construction industry is forecast to fall by 4.4 per cent this year, according to the latest set of predictions from Experian

Experian’s spring 2012 forecasts show a slight upward revision overall, compared to those released at the beginning of the year (see AJ 03.01.2012). Back then, output was set to fall by 5.6 per cent this year, before rising by 1.1 per cent next year and 4.7 per cent in 2014.

Experian is now predicting output to decline by 4.4 per cent this year, to £102.3 billion, with the following two years rising by 1.3 per cent and 4.7 per cent respectively, reported sister title Construction News.

Forecasts for public housing remain pessimistic, with Experian holding to its 25 per cent predicted dip for 2012, though prospects for private housing remain more optimistic. The sector is forecast to rise by 5 per cent this year, though at £14.7 billion is still below the 2006 peak. Experian attributes the growth to improvements in the economy and the various government schemes facilitating demand.

Infrastructure is set to be flat in growth this year, though the sector is still posting record activity and is considered the ‘star performer’, according to the forecasts. Commercial meanwhile is forecast to fall by 3 per cent this year before rising by the same proportion next year, though Experian says growth in offices will be dependent on London and the South-east.

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